Amiens 1-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Quevilly at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Amiens have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Amiens haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Amiens's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Quevilly haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Amiens, 1.10 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Amiens 1W, Quevilly 2W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 3–1 with Amiens winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 53% versus Quevilly 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 45% | Quevilly 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.33 xG and Quevilly 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.865 / defence 1.098 | Quevilly attack 1.075 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.143. Data: 38 Amiens games / 38 Quevilly games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 38%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Quevilly 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Amiens 50% | Quevilly 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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