Amiens 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Amiens welcome Paris FC to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Paris FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris FC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Amiens) versus 1.30 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Amiens, 2 for Paris FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Paris FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Paris FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 40% | Paris FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.16 xG and Paris FC 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.172 / defence 0.832 | Paris FC attack 0.819 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.101. Data: 43 Amiens games / 43 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 45% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Paris FC 4.35. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 40% | Paris FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 45% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Amiens 1.16 / Paris FC 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.172 / def 0.832 | Paris FC attack 0.819 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Amiens (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Paris FC xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Paris FC kick off?
Amiens vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Amiens 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Amiens vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Paris FC part of?
Amiens vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 45% chance of winning, Paris FC a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Amiens and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 2W.
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 1.17x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.16
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.91
0.75
Paris FC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
7%
13.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Amiens and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Amiens and 0.75 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 18D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.70 PPG from 43 outings (20W 13D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Amiens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Amiens's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.28 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Paris FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 12W 18D 13L in their last 43 games (1.26 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 20W 13D 10L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Paris FC away?
Amiens's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.57 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Amiens or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Amiens
3
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Paris FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 38%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Amiens) and 43% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 33% of games; Paris FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Amiens's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Amiens's recent games and 43% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Amiens and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 6, as Amiens and Paris FC drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.16 xG and Paris FC 0.75 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Paris FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 45% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 23%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Paris FC 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.