Amiens 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Le Havre are 1.20 PPG clear of Amiens in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Le Havre 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 39% | Le Havre 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.79 xG and Le Havre 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.987 / defence 0.959 | Le Havre attack 0.953 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.038. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Amiens games / 57 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 29% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 38%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Le Havre 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Amiens's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Le Havre 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 29% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Amiens 0.79 / Le Havre 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.987 / def 0.959 | Le Havre attack 0.953 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Le Havre xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Le Havre kick off?
Amiens vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Le Havre?
Amiens 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Amiens vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Le Havre part of?
Amiens vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 29% chance of winning, Le Havre a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Amiens and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Amiens and Le Havre in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Le Havre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amiens's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.95x) against Amiens's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
29%
3.50
34%
2.96
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.73
0.95
Le Havre xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 16.8 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Amiens and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Amiens and 0.95 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 22D 18L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.61 PPG from 57 outings (25W 17D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Amiens against 1.61 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Amiens's home form reads 12W 8D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.61 points per game from 28 outings (12W 9D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.18 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Le Havre in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 17W 22D 18L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 25W 17D 15L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.57 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Amiens or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Le Havre in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Amiens
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Amiens 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 39%, Le Havre 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Amiens) and 36% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Le Havre in 50%; Amiens have failed to score in 32% of games; Le Havre in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Amiens's recent matches and 36% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Amiens's recent games and 36% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Amiens and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 20, as Amiens and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.79 xG and Le Havre 0.95 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Le Havre attack 0.95 / defence 0.68, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 29% | Draw 34% | Le Havre 38%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 39%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.28 PPG, Le Havre 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.