Amiens 1-2 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Laval (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Laval have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Amiens, 1.20 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Amiens 1W, Laval 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with Amiens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Laval — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 51% versus Laval 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 43% | Laval 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.40 xG and Laval 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.783 / defence 1.125 | Laval attack 0.665 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.148. Amiens's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Amiens games / 37 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 28% | Laval 23%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Laval 4.35. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 28% | Laval 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Amiens 1.40 / Laval 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.783 / def 1.125 | Laval attack 0.665 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Amiens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Laval xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Laval kick off?
Amiens vs Laval kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Laval?
Amiens 1 - 2 Laval.
Where is Amiens vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Laval part of?
Amiens vs Laval is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 49% chance of winning, Laval a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Amiens and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 0W.
What form are Amiens and Laval in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Laval (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.78x the league average against Laval's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.67x) against Amiens's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
49%
2.02
28%
3.61
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.26
0.86
Laval xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Amiens and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Amiens and 0.86 for Laval, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 13W 8D 16L from 37 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 20L across 37 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Amiens against 1.16 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 8W 3D 7L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 4W 2D 12L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Laval
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Laval in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 13W 8D 16L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Laval have gone 13W 4D 20L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Laval away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Laval away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 0-3 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Amiens
3
Draws
3
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Laval have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Amiens 0-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 44%, Laval 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Amiens) and 50% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Laval in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Amiens's recent matches and 39% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Amiens's recent games and 50% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Laval tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Laval in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Laval defy the odds to beat Amiens 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.40 xG and Laval 0.86 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Laval outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Laval attack 0.67 / defence 1.36, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 49% | Draw 28% | Laval 23%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Laval win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 43%, Laval 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.27 PPG, Laval 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.