Amiens 3-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Amiens) versus 1.30 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Amiens, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 44% versus Guingamp 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.866 / defence 1.078 | Guingamp attack 1.112 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.088. Data: 68 Amiens games / 68 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 36% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 38%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 36% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Amiens 1.26 / Guingamp 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.866 / def 1.078 | Guingamp attack 1.112 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Guingamp kick off?
Amiens vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Amiens 3 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Amiens vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Guingamp part of?
Amiens vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 36% chance of winning, Guingamp a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Amiens and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
Record (7 meetings): Amiens 3W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.87) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.76
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.57
1.30
Guingamp xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Amiens and 1.30 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 23W 21D 24L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 28W 15D 25L from 68 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.32 PPG, Guingamp on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.59 PPG from 34 outings (14W 12D 8L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 15W 6D 13L from 34 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.35 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Guingamp in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 23W 21D 24L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 28W 15D 25L in their last 68 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Guingamp away?
Amiens's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.59 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Amiens or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Guingamp in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 47%, Guingamp 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Amiens) and 47% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Guingamp in 38%; Amiens have failed to score in 26% of games; Guingamp in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Amiens's recent matches and 47% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Amiens's recent games and 47% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Guingamp tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Guingamp 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Guingamp 3-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Guingamp attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 36% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 38%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.32 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.