Amiens 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and Dijon meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Dijon have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Amiens. A 0.80 PPG lead over Dijon (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Dijon — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Dijon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Dijon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.42 xG and Dijon 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.189 / defence 0.751 | Dijon attack 0.946 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.115. Amiens's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Amiens games / 48 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 52% | Draw 27% | Dijon 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Dijon 4.76. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 40% | Dijon 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 52% | Draw 27% | Dijon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Amiens 1.42 / Dijon 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.189 / def 0.751 | Dijon attack 0.946 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Amiens (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Dijon xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Dijon kick off?
Amiens vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Dijon?
Amiens 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Amiens vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Dijon part of?
Amiens vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 52% chance of winning, Dijon a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Amiens and Dijon in?
Amiens (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Amiens's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.95x) against Amiens's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.68
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.21
0.79
Dijon xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Amiens and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Amiens and 0.79 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 15W 19D 14L from 48 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 21L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Amiens against 1.23 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 11W 7D 5L from 23 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dijon's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.19 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Dijon in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 15W 19D 14L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Dijon have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Dijon away?
Amiens's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.74 PPG; Dijon away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Amiens or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dijon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dijon won 3-0 on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Amiens
1
Draws
2
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 1, Dijon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Dijon 3-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Dijon?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 35%, Dijon 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Amiens) and 56% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 30% of games; Dijon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Amiens's recent matches and 56% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Amiens's recent games and 56% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Dijon tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Dijon in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.42 xG and Dijon 0.79 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.19 / defence 0.75 against Dijon attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 52% | Draw 27% | Dijon 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Dijon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.33 PPG, Dijon 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.