Amiens 0-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Amiens face Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ajaccio travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Amiens — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Amiens have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ajaccio stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Ajaccio have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amiens at 1.60 PPG versus Ajaccio's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Amiens have won 0, Ajaccio 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Jan 2022, ended Amiens 0–1 Ajaccio — a Ajaccio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 49% versus Ajaccio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 44% | Ajaccio 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.79 xG and Ajaccio 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.073 / defence 0.892 | Ajaccio attack 0.663 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. Ajaccio's defence rating of 1.288 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Data: built from Amiens's last 45 games and Ajaccio's last 7.
Result probabilities: Amiens 65% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 12%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.53 | Draw 4.31 | Ajaccio 8.61. The model has a clear lean to Amiens (65%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 50% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 8 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 65% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Amiens 1.79 / Ajaccio 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.073 / def 0.892 | Ajaccio attack 0.663 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Amiens (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Ajaccio xG
39%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Ajaccio kick off?
Amiens vs Ajaccio kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Amiens 0 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Amiens vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Ajaccio part of?
Amiens vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 8) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 65% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Amiens and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Amiens vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Amiens's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 45 games and Ajaccio's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.31
12%
8.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.41
0.62
Ajaccio xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
8.61
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
51.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Amiens and 0.62 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 9D 19L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Ajaccio's form line: 9W 8D 28L from 45 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Amiens are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 4D 8L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 4W 2D 16L from their last 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.64 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
Amiens (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Amiens vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 17W 9D 19L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 9W 8D 28L in their last 45 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Ajaccio away?
Amiens's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.55 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Amiens's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Amiens
2
Draws
3
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Ajaccio?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 1, Ajaccio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2025: Ajaccio 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Ajaccio 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Amiens) and 68% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ajaccio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amiens's recent matches and 41% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Amiens's recent games and 68% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Amiens's recent matches and 77% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Ajaccio finished level at 0-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.79 xG and Ajaccio 0.62 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Ajaccio attack 0.66 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 65% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 12%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 44%, Ajaccio 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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