Ajaccio 1-0 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Ajaccio take on Sochaux.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajaccio host Sochaux at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ajaccio — All Games: 2W 3D 0L from 5 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 4W 1D 1L from 6 outings — 2.17 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sochaux's away record: 2W 1D 0L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Ajaccio) versus 2.17 (Sochaux). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajaccio register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sochaux in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 60% versus Sochaux 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 40% | Sochaux 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.06 xG and Sochaux 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.391 / defence 1.027 | Sochaux attack 0.940 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 0.718 / away 1.141. Ajaccio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — their λ of 1.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 5 Ajaccio games / 6 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 31% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 34%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Sochaux 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ajaccio 60% | Sochaux 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 31% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Ajaccio 1.06 / Sochaux 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.391 / def 1.027 | Sochaux attack 0.940 / def 1.061 | league avg home 0.718 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sochaux xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Sochaux kick off?
Ajaccio vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Sochaux?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Sochaux.
Where is Ajaccio vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Sochaux part of?
Ajaccio vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 31% chance of winning, Sochaux a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ajaccio and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Sochaux in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Sochaux (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.39x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
35%
2.86
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.16
1.10
Sochaux xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.10 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 2W 3D 0L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux's form line: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajaccio on 1.80 PPG, Sochaux on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sochaux in 20%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Sochaux in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Ajaccio or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sochaux in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Sochaux runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
0
Draws
0
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Sochaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Sochaux have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Sochaux 0-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Sochaux?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 60%, Sochaux 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Ajaccio and 20% for Sochaux.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sochaux in 60%; Sochaux in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 20% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ajaccio's recent games and 20% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Sochaux tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Sochaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Sochaux 1-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.06 xG and Sochaux 1.10 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sochaux landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.39 / defence 1.03 against Sochaux attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 31% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 40%, Sochaux 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sochaux's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.80 PPG, Sochaux 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sochaux managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.