Ajaccio 0-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Ajaccio welcome Bastia to Stade François Coty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajaccio have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade François Coty — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bastia — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ajaccio, 1 for Bastia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bastia in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 15% | Bastia 48%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 11% | Bastia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.09 xG and Bastia 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.789 / defence 0.901 | Bastia attack 1.020 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 0.946. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Ajaccio games / 27 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 40% | Draw 31% | Bastia 29%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Bastia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 10% | Bastia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 40% | Draw 31% | Bastia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Ajaccio 1.09 / Bastia 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.789 / def 0.901 | Bastia attack 1.020 / def 1.389 | league avg home 0.991 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bastia xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Bastia kick off?
Ajaccio vs Bastia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Ajaccio 0 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Ajaccio vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Bastia part of?
Ajaccio vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 40% chance of winning, Bastia a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ajaccio and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Ajaccio and Bastia in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.79x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
40%
2.49
31%
3.22
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.96
0.87
Bastia xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.87 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 15W 6D 6L from 27 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 12D 9L across 27 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bastia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 8W 3D 2L from 13 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 3W 1D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 0.52 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 15% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Bastia in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 15W 6D 6L in their last 27 games (1.89 PPG), while Bastia have gone 6W 12D 9L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Bastia away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.08 PPG; Bastia away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their recent games, Bastia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Bastia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajaccio's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Bastia have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Bastia 4-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ajaccio 15% BTTS, Bastia 54%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Ajaccio and 54% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 38% of games; Bastia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 15% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 54% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Ajaccio's recent games and 54% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Bastia tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 31% of their recent matches, Bastia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Ajaccio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Ajaccio 0-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.09 xG and Bastia 0.87 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ajaccio fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.79 / defence 0.90 against Bastia attack 1.02 / defence 1.39, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 40% | Draw 31% | Bastia 29%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 22% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 11%, Bastia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 63% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Bastia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.