Toulouse 0-0 Rennes – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Toulouse at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Rennes.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Rennes in Ligue 1 (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Toulouse's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Toulouse have posted 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Rennes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Rennes have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Toulouse, 0.80 for Rennes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2023, ended Toulouse 3–1 Rennes — a Toulouse win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Rennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 55% | Rennes 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Toulouse surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Rennes have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Rennes surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Toulouse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.28 xG and Rennes 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.953 / defence 1.071 | Rennes attack 0.784 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.035. Rennes's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Toulouse's last 53 games and Rennes's last 53.

Result probabilities: Toulouse 44% | Draw 33% | Rennes 23%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.29 | Draw 3.03 | Rennes 4.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Rennes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Rennes 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights