Toulouse vs Paris FC Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 37%, yet in-form Paris FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Toulouse vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Paris FC meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 April 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Toulouse's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Toulouse's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Paris FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Paris FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Paris FC are 0.70 PPG clear of Toulouse over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Toulouse edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Feb 2026, ended Toulouse 1–1 Paris FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Toulouse — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 49% versus Paris FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Paris FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.18 xG and Paris FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.914 / defence 0.974 | Paris FC attack 0.858 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Data: built from Toulouse's last 43 games and Paris FC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 37% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.71 | Draw 3.30 | Paris FC 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Toulouse 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 17 April 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 37% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Toulouse 1.18 / Paris FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.914 / def 0.974 | Paris FC attack 0.858 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Paris FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Paris FC kick off?
Toulouse vs Paris FC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Stadium de Toulouse.
Where is Toulouse vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Paris FC part of?
Toulouse vs Paris FC is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 28) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 37% chance of winning, Paris FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Toulouse and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Toulouse vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.86x) against Toulouse's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 43 games and Paris FC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.30
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.27
1.10
Paris FC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.10 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 12D 16L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Paris FC's form line: 17W 13D 13L from 43 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Toulouse against 1.49 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 21 home games (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 6W 8D 7L from their last 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC in 60%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Toulouse (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Toulouse vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 17W 13D 13L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Paris FC away?
Toulouse's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.33 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won Paris FC 0-3 Toulouse on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
0
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 2, Paris FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Toulouse 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Paris FC?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 43%, Paris FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Toulouse) and 48% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Toulouse's recent matches and 67% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Toulouse and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Toulouse's recent games and 48% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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