Toulouse 0-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Nantes travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadium de Toulouse this season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nantes haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Nantes have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Toulouse, 2 for Nantes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Nantes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Nantes in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 62% versus Nantes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 62% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.30 xG and Nantes 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.946 / defence 1.036 | Nantes attack 0.833 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.515. Data: 34 Toulouse games / 34 Nantes games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 37% | Draw 26% | Nantes 37%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Nantes 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 70% | Nantes 30%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 37% | Draw 26% | Nantes 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Toulouse 1.30 / Nantes 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.946 / def 1.036 | Nantes attack 0.833 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Nantes xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Nantes kick off?
Toulouse vs Nantes kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Toulouse 0 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Toulouse vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nantes part of?
Toulouse vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 37% chance of winning, Nantes a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Toulouse and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nantes?
Record (4 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Nantes 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Nantes in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.95) and Nantes's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.80
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.61
1.31
Nantes xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.31 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 10D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. Toulouse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.97 PPG from 34 outings (9W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. Nantes haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.26 PPG, Nantes on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 3W 7D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.88 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Pre-Season
Nantes
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Nantes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 11W 10D 13L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Nantes have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nantes away?
Nantes's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 0.94 PPG; Nantes away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Toulouse's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Toulouse
4
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nantes?
From 7 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Nantes have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 71%, Nantes 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Toulouse) and 47% (Nantes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nantes in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Toulouse's games and 41% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Toulouse's matches and 47% of Nantes's.
Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 1, as Toulouse and Nantes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.30 xG and Nantes 1.31 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nantes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Nantes attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 37% | Draw 26% | Nantes 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 62%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantes's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.26 PPG, Nantes 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.