Toulouse vs Monaco – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Monaco at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadium de Toulouse — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.30 PPG versus Monaco's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Toulouse, 4 for Monaco and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 49% versus Monaco 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Monaco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.20 xG and Monaco 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.773 / defence 0.999 | Monaco attack 0.904 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Toulouse's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Toulouse games / 43 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 35% | Draw 31% | Monaco 34%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Monaco 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 40% | Monaco 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 35% | Draw 31% | Monaco 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Toulouse 1.20 / Monaco 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.773 / def 0.999 | Monaco attack 0.904 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Monaco xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Monaco kick off?
Toulouse vs Monaco is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadium de Toulouse.
Where is Toulouse vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Monaco part of?
Toulouse vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 35% chance of winning, Monaco a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Toulouse and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
Record (9 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 3 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.27
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.39
1.19
Monaco xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.19 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 12D 16L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 20W 9D 14L from 43 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.33 PPG, Monaco on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.67 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 games (1.33 PPG), while Monaco have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Monaco away?
Toulouse's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.41 PPG; Monaco away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Toulouse's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Toulouse
3
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
From 9 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Monaco have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 41%, Monaco 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Toulouse) and 59% (Monaco).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Toulouse have failed to score in 41% of games; Monaco in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Monaco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Toulouse's recent matches and 68% of Monaco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Toulouse's recent games and 59% of Monaco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Monaco tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Monaco in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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