Toulouse 0-4 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Lille at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Toulouse's 30% rate and Lille's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Lille have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Toulouse.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Lille winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lille have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 50% versus Lille 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 48% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.11 xG and Lille 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.864 / defence 0.905 | Lille attack 1.040 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.187. Data: 62 Toulouse games / 62 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 35% | Draw 30% | Lille 35%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 30% | Lille 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 35% | Draw 30% | Lille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Toulouse 1.11 / Lille 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.864 / def 0.905 | Lille attack 1.040 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Lille xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lille kick off?
Toulouse vs Lille kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 0 - 4 Lille.
Where is Toulouse vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lille part of?
Toulouse vs Lille is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 35% chance of winning, Lille a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Toulouse and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
Record (7 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 5W.
What form are Toulouse and Lille in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.86x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.33
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Lille xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.12 for Lille, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 16D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.77 PPG from 62 outings (32W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.48 points per game from 31 outings (13W 7D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.56 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 21W 16D 25L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Lille have gone 32W 14D 16L in their last 62 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.29 PPG; Lille away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lille in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lille go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
7
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
From 9 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Lille have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 55%, Lille 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Toulouse) and 45% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lille in 36%; Lille in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Toulouse's recent matches and 39% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Toulouse's recent games and 45% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lille tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Lille in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 0-4 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.11 xG and Lille 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Lille attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 35% | Draw 30% | Lille 35%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 48%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.