Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Le Havre travel to Stadium Municipal to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadium Municipal — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 0.90 PPG versus Le Havre's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Toulouse have won 3, Le Havre 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 49% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Le Havre 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.03 xG and Le Havre 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.800 / defence 1.044 | Le Havre attack 0.916 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.341. Data: 37 Toulouse games / 38 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 28% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 41%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Le Havre 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 40% | Le Havre 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadium Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 28% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Toulouse 1.03 / Le Havre 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.800 / def 1.044 | Le Havre attack 0.916 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Le Havre xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Le Havre kick off?
Toulouse vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadium Municipal.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse 3 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Toulouse vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium Municipal.
What competition is Toulouse vs Le Havre part of?
Toulouse vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 28% chance of winning, Le Havre a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Toulouse and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
Record (8 meetings): Toulouse 3W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 3W.
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
28%
3.52
31%
3.24
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.32
1.28
Le Havre xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.28 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 12W 10D 15L from 37 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 7W 16D 14L across 37 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.24 PPG, Le Havre on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 5W 6D 6L from 17 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 7D 8L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 14L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Le Havre away?
Toulouse's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.24 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Toulouse
2
Draws
3
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
From 9 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 4, Le Havre have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Le Havre?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 35%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Toulouse and 18% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 47% of games; Le Havre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Toulouse's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Toulouse's recent games and 18% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Le Havre 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Le Havre 3-2 at Stadium Municipal, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.03 xG and Le Havre 1.28 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Le Havre attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 28% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 41%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Le Havre 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.24 PPG, Le Havre 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.