Toulouse 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Le Havre travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadium de Toulouse — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.40 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Toulouse register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Le Havre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Toulouse have won 3, Le Havre 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 4–1 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Le Havre 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 52% | Le Havre 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 2.13 xG and Le Havre 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.151 / defence 1.228 | Le Havre attack 0.938 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.244. Data: 44 Toulouse games / 44 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 53% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 26%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Le Havre 3.85. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 80% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 53% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Toulouse 2.13 / Le Havre 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.151 / def 1.228 | Le Havre attack 0.938 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Le Havre xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Le Havre kick off?
Toulouse vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Toulouse vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Le Havre part of?
Toulouse vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 53% chance of winning, Le Havre a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Toulouse and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Toulouse 3W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 2W.
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
53%
1.87
21%
4.80
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.56
1.43
Le Havre xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
12%
8.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
3%
32.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.43 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 15W 11D 18L from 44 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 24L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.27 PPG, Le Havre on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 8W 3D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.18 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Le Havre in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 7D 24L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Le Havre away?
Toulouse's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.27 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Toulouse
2
Draws
3
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Le Havre have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 68%, Le Havre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Toulouse) and 50% (Le Havre).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Toulouse's games and 59% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Toulouse's recent games and 50% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Toulouse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 2.13 xG and Le Havre 1.43 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.15 / defence 1.23 against Le Havre attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 53% | Draw 21% | Le Havre 26%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 52%, Le Havre 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.27 PPG, Le Havre 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.