Strasbourg 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade de la Meinau to face Strasbourg in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Strasbourg's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Strasbourg at Stade de la Meinau this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Strasbourg. A 0.90 PPG lead over Clermont Foot (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Strasbourg lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Strasbourg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Strasbourg — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 53% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 42% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.76 xG and Clermont Foot 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.089 / defence 0.958 | Clermont Foot attack 0.662 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.251. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Strasbourg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Strasbourg games / 36 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 60% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 16%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Strasbourg (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Strasbourg are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 50% | Clermont Foot 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 60% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Strasbourg 1.76 / Clermont Foot 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.089 / def 0.958 | Clermont Foot attack 0.662 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Clermont Foot xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot?
Strasbourg 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot part of?
Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 60% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Strasbourg and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Strasbourg 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Strasbourg and Clermont Foot in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Strasbourg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.66x) against Strasbourg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
60%
1.65
23%
4.34
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.56
0.79
Clermont Foot xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
35.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Strasbourg and 0.79 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Strasbourg come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 12D 8L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.00 PPG from 36 outings (9W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Strasbourg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Strasbourg's home form reads 10W 5D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (5W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Strasbourg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.03 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 16W 12D 8L in their last 36 games (1.67 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 9D 18L in their last 36 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Clermont Foot away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.94 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Strasbourg
4
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Clermont Foot?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 56%, Clermont Foot 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Strasbourg) and 44% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 33% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Strasbourg vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Strasbourg's recent games and 44% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Strasbourg edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.76 xG and Clermont Foot 0.79 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Clermont Foot attack 0.66 / defence 1.33, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 60% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 16%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 42%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.