Stade Brestois 29 4-3 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Metz in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stade Brestois 29 have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stade Francis-Le Blé — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
Metz's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Stade Brestois 29's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 2W, Metz 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 51% versus Metz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 45% | Metz 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.59 xG and Metz 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.014 / defence 0.660 | Metz attack 0.765 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.312. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Stade Brestois 29's defence rating of 0.660 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Stade Brestois 29 games / 27 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 59% | Draw 27% | Metz 14%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Metz 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Metz 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 59% | Draw 27% | Metz 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.59 / Metz 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.014 / def 0.660 | Metz attack 0.765 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Metz xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Stade Brestois 29 4 - 3 Metz.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 59% chance of winning, Metz a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
Record (3 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 2W | Draws 0 | Metz 1W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Metz (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.77x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
59%
1.71
27%
3.70
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.25
0.66
Metz xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
34.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.66 for Metz, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 25W 19D 21L from 65 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 22L across 65 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.46 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 14W 10D 8L from 32 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 14W 7D 11L across 32 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 25W 19D 21L in their last 65 games (1.45 PPG), while Metz have gone 26W 17D 22L in their last 65 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Metz away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.62 PPG; Metz away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Metz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stade Brestois 29 go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Stade Brestois 29
0
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, Metz have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Metz 0-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Metz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 50%, Metz 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stade Brestois 29) and 47% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 53% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 47% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Metz tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Metz in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Metz 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Metz 4-3 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.59 xG and Metz 0.66 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.01 / defence 0.66 against Metz attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 59% | Draw 27% | Metz 14%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 45%, Metz 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Metz's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.45 PPG, Metz 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.