Stade Brestois 29 2-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 host Clermont Foot at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stade Brestois 29 1.80 PPG, Clermont Foot 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Clermont Foot and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 60% versus Clermont Foot 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 48% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.16 xG and Clermont Foot 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.027 / defence 0.835 | Clermont Foot attack 0.976 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.241. Data: 73 Stade Brestois 29 games / 73 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 39% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 31%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Clermont Foot 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Clermont Foot 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 39% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.16 / Clermont Foot 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.027 / def 0.835 | Clermont Foot attack 0.976 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Clermont Foot xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 39% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 2W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Brestois 29's attack at 1.03x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
39%
2.60
31%
3.26
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.17
1.01
Clermont Foot xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.01 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 22W 20D 31L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Clermont Foot's form line: 24W 17D 32L from 73 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.18 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (13W 9D 14L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 12W 8D 16L from 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.05 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 22W 20D 31L in their last 73 games (1.18 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 24W 17D 32L in their last 73 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Clermont Foot away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.33 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 53%, Clermont Foot 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stade Brestois 29) and 42% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 44% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 42% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Clermont Foot 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.16 xG and Clermont Foot 1.01 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.03 / defence 0.83 against Clermont Foot attack 0.98 / defence 0.80, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 39% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 31%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 48%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.18 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.