Saint Etienne 2-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Toulouse at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Saint Etienne welcome Toulouse to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 0.90 (Toulouse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 1 for Toulouse and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 43% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 46% | Toulouse 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.23 xG and Toulouse 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.965 / defence 1.488 | Toulouse attack 0.974 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.390. Data: 33 Saint Etienne games / 67 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 23% | Draw 22% | Toulouse 55%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Toulouse 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Toulouse 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 23% | Draw 22% | Toulouse 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Saint Etienne 1.23 / Toulouse 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.965 / def 1.488 | Toulouse attack 0.974 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Toulouse xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Toulouse kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Toulouse?
Saint Etienne 2 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Toulouse part of?
Saint Etienne vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 23% chance of winning, Toulouse a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Saint Etienne and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Toulouse in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.96) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
23%
4.40
22%
4.51
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.25
2.01
Toulouse xG
4.40
23%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
3%
32.95
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 2.01 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 67 games, going 26W 13D 28L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.22 PPG from 67 outings (21W 19D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.36 PPG, Toulouse on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 16W 6D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.39 points per game from 33 outings (13W 7D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.24 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 26W 13D 28L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 21W 19D 27L in their last 67 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Toulouse away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.64 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Toulouse in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Toulouse runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Saint Etienne 2-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 48%, Toulouse 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Saint Etienne) and 54% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Toulouse in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 46% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 54% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Toulouse tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Saint Etienne 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Saint Etienne 2-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.23 xG and Toulouse 2.01 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.96 / defence 1.49 against Toulouse attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 23% | Draw 22% | Toulouse 55%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 46%, Toulouse 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.36 PPG, Toulouse 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.