Rennes 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rennes (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rennes face Metz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rennes and Metz meet at Roazhon Park in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Rennes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes at Roazhon Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Metz (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Metz have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Rennes. A 1.40 PPG lead over Metz (1.60 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Rennes have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Metz managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Rennes winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rennes and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 50% versus Metz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 62% | Metz 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.30 xG and Metz 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.112 / defence 0.975 | Metz attack 0.713 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.196. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Rennes games / 26 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Metz 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 80% | Metz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG Rennes 2.30 / Metz 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.112 / def 0.975 | Metz attack 0.713 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Rennes (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Metz xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Metz kick off?
Rennes vs Metz kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Metz?
Rennes 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Rennes vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Metz part of?
Rennes vs Metz is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 70% chance of winning, Metz a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rennes and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Metz?
Record (5 meetings): Rennes 5W | Draws 0 | Metz 0W.
What form are Rennes and Metz in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Metz (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rennes's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.71x) against Rennes's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.66
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.13
0.83
Metz xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.66
18%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
10%
9.96
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
1%
83.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rennes and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Rennes and 0.83 for Metz, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 25W 9D 26L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 22W 14D 24L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rennes against 1.33 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rennes have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (16W 4D 10L).
On the road, Metz have gone 9W 6D 15L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.48 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Metz in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 25W 9D 26L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Metz away?
Rennes's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.73 PPG; Metz away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Rennes or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Metz in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 6-1 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Rennes
1
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 5, Metz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rennes 0-0 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Metz?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 50%, Metz 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Rennes and 67% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Metz in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rennes's games and 60% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Rennes's matches and 67% of Metz's.
Do Rennes and Metz tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Metz in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes and Metz finished level at 0-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.30 xG and Metz 0.83 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rennes fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Metz landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Metz attack 0.71 / defence 1.45, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 62%, Metz 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Metz's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.40 PPG, Metz 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.