Rennes 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Rennes welcome Le Havre to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Rennes have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rennes have posted 4W 2D 4L at Roazhon Park — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rennes 0.90 PPG, Le Havre 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rennes, 0 for Le Havre and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Rennes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Rennes in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 67% versus Le Havre 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Le Havre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.02 xG and Le Havre 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.139 / defence 0.846 | Le Havre attack 0.806 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.368. Data: 42 Rennes games / 42 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 60% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 14%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 60% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Rennes 2.02 / Le Havre 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.139 / def 0.846 | Le Havre attack 0.806 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Rennes (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Le Havre xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Le Havre kick off?
Rennes vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Le Havre?
Rennes 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Rennes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Le Havre part of?
Rennes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 60% chance of winning, Le Havre a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rennes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Rennes 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in?
Rennes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.14) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
60%
1.68
27%
3.74
14%
7.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.95
0.93
Le Havre xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
7.30
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
2%
54.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Rennes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Rennes and 0.93 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 14W 12D 16L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 9W 11D 22L from 42 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.29 PPG, Le Havre on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rennes have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 9D 10L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.98 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 14W 12D 16L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Le Havre away?
Rennes's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.52 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Le Havre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when Rennes won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rennes
3
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 3, Le Havre have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rennes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Le Havre?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 76%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Rennes) and 48% (Le Havre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Rennes's games and 48% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Rennes's matches and 48% of Le Havre's.
Do Rennes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Le Havre 1-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.02 xG and Le Havre 0.93 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rennes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Le Havre attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 60% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 14%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Le Havre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.29 PPG, Le Havre 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.