Rennes 2-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Rennes welcome Clermont Foot to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rennes stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Roazhon Park this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Rennes) versus 1.20 (Clermont Foot). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rennes have won 1, Clermont Foot 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 59% versus Clermont Foot 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 61% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.42 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.277 / defence 0.828 | Clermont Foot attack 0.927 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.251. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Clermont Foot's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Rennes games / 61 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 45% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 23%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Clermont Foot 4.35. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 50% | Clermont Foot 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 45% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Rennes 1.42 / Clermont Foot 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.277 / def 0.828 | Clermont Foot attack 0.927 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Rennes (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Rennes 2 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Rennes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 45% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rennes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Rennes 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Rennes and Clermont Foot in?
Rennes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.28) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.13
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.38
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rennes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Rennes and 0.96 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 32W 10D 19L from 61 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 29L across 61 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 24W 0D 6L from 30 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 32W 10D 19L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Rennes's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.40 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Rennes or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Clermont Foot runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rennes have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Rennes won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 40%, Clermont Foot 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rennes) and 43% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rennes's recent matches and 43% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Rennes's recent games and 43% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Clermont Foot 2-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.42 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.28 / defence 0.83 against Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 45% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 23%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 61%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.