Rennes 5-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 11 September 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rennes have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rennes at Roazhon Park this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Rennes against 1.30 for Auxerre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 54% versus Auxerre 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 52% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.12 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.188 / defence 0.831 | Auxerre attack 0.847 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.465. Data: 44 Rennes games / 6 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 62% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 17%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Auxerre 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 50% | Auxerre 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 62% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Rennes 2.12 / Auxerre 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.188 / def 0.831 | Auxerre attack 0.847 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Rennes (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Auxerre xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Auxerre kick off?
Rennes vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Auxerre?
Rennes 5 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Rennes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Auxerre part of?
Rennes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 62% chance of winning, Auxerre a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rennes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Auxerre in?
Rennes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.19) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.85x) against Rennes's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.65
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.15
1.03
Auxerre xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
49.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Rennes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Rennes and 1.03 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 22W 8D 14L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 21W 14D 9L from 44 games, 1.75 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Rennes against 1.75 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rennes have posted 2.23 PPG from 22 outings (16W 1D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 10W 8D 4L from 22 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.48 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 22W 8D 14L in their last 44 games (1.68 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 21W 14D 9L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Auxerre away?
Rennes's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.23 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Rennes or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 5-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 2, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-3 Rennes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 41%, Auxerre 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rennes) and 50% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Rennes's recent matches and 68% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rennes's recent games and 50% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Auxerre 5-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.12 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 62% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 17%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 52%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.68 PPG, Auxerre 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.