Reims 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Reims have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Reims's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Reims carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Reims, 1 for Stade Brestois 29 and 5 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2024, ended Reims 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 69% versus Stade Brestois 29 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 60% | Stade Brestois 29 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 2.00 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.061 / defence 1.001 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.869 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.367. Data: built from Reims's last 42 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 42.
Result probabilities: Reims 54% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 20%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.87 | Draw 3.71 | Stade Brestois 29 5.13. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reims 60% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 54% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Reims 2.00 / Stade Brestois 29 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.061 / def 1.001 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.869 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Reims (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Stade Brestois 29 xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reims 1 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 54% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Reims and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reims's attack at 1.06x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 42 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
54%
1.87
27%
3.71
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Reims xG
Total xG
3.19
1.19
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
13%
7.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
3%
38.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Reims and 1.19 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Reims have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 10D 15L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Stade Brestois 29's form line: 20W 11D 11L from 42 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.45 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 20 home games (9W 4D 7L).
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 9W 3D 8L from their last 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.52 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Reims's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.55 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Reims or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
6
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2025: Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 55%, Stade Brestois 29 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 50% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Reims's recent matches and 40% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Reims's recent matches and 70% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Reims 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 2.00 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.19 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reims fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 54% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 20%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Stade Brestois 29 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 60%, Stade Brestois 29 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.45 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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