Reims 2-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune II plays host to Reims versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Reims, 0.90 for Saint Etienne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 59% and Saint Etienne 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 41% | Saint Etienne 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.21 xG and Saint Etienne 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.765 / defence 1.106 | Saint Etienne attack 0.664 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.310. Reims's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Reims games / 17 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 41% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 28%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Saint Etienne 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Saint Etienne 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 41% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Reims 1.21 / Saint Etienne 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.765 / def 1.106 | Saint Etienne attack 0.664 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Reims (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Saint Etienne xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Reims vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Reims 2 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Reims vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Saint Etienne part of?
Reims vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 41% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Reims and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Saint Etienne in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.77x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.66x) against Reims's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
41%
2.47
31%
3.19
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Reims xG
Total xG
2.17
0.96
Saint Etienne xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Reims and 0.96 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 7D 6L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.00 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Saint Etienne away?
Reims's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.12 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reims
0
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Saint Etienne 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Reims's games and 62% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Saint Etienne 2-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.21 xG and Saint Etienne 0.96 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Saint Etienne attack 0.66 / defence 1.35, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 41% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 28%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 41%, Saint Etienne 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.