Reims 1-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Reims face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris Saint Germain make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Reims have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Paris Saint Germain in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 6 meetings, Paris Saint Germain have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Reims's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Paris Saint Germain have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 66% and Paris Saint Germain 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 58% | Paris Saint Germain 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.05 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.863 / defence 0.987 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.473 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.339. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Reims games / 38 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 18% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 56%. Fair-value odds: Reims 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Paris Saint Germain 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 60% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 18% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Reims 1.05 / Paris Saint Germain 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.863 / def 0.987 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.473 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Paris Saint Germain xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reims 1 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Reims vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 18% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Reims and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (6 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 3 | Paris Saint Germain 3W.
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.86) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.47x) against Reims's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
18%
5.55
26%
3.90
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Reims xG
Total xG
3.00
1.95
Paris Saint Germain xG
5.55
18%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
3%
38.95
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Reims and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Reims and 1.95 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims's recent record stands at 15W 9D 14L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 26W 10D 2L across 38 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 3D 7L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris Saint Germain's away record stands at 15W 4D 0L across 19 trips, a 2.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.55 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Paris Saint Germain in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 15W 9D 14L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 26W 10D 2L in their last 38 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.58 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.58 PPG.
Have Reims or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 4-0 on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Reims
5
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 47%, Paris Saint Germain 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reims) and 53% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 42%; Reims have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Reims's recent matches and 58% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reims's recent games and 53% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Paris Saint Germain share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Paris Saint Germain finished level at 1-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.05 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.95 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.47 / defence 0.76, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 18% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 56%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 58%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.