Reims 0-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reims face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Lille meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Reims's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reims's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lille have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Lille have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Reims, 1.50 for Lille — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Reims, 1 for Lille and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Reims 2–1 Lille — a Reims win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lille — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Lille 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reims surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Lille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.28 xG and Lille 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.917 / defence 1.045 | Lille attack 0.854 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.120. Data: built from Reims's last 61 games and Lille's last 61.
Result probabilities: Reims 40% | Draw 34% | Lille 26%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.49 | Draw 2.98 | Lille 3.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reims 50% (last 10 home games) | Lille 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 40% | Draw 34% | Lille 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Reims 1.28 / Lille 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.917 / def 1.045 | Lille attack 0.854 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Reims (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lille xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Lille FAQs
What time does Reims vs Lille kick off?
Reims vs Lille kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lille?
Reims 0 - 1 Lille.
Where is Reims vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Lille part of?
Reims vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 40% chance of winning, Lille a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reims and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Reims vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.92x the league average against Lille's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.85x) against Reims's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 61 games and Lille's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
40%
2.49
34%
2.98
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Reims xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
Lille xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Reims and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Reims and 1.00 for Lille, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 19D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.72 PPG from 61 outings (29W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Reims against 1.72 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reims's home form reads 13W 8D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 11D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.61 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Lille
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Reims vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Lille in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 22W 19D 20L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Lille have gone 29W 18D 14L in their last 61 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Lille away?
Reims's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.57 PPG; Lille away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Reims or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lille in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Reims and Lille, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Lille have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lille?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 3, Lille have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reims and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: Lille 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Lille 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 40% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lille in 33%; Lille in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Lille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 53% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 40% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Reims's recent matches and 67% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Reims 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Reims 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.28 xG and Lille 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Lille attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 40% | Draw 34% | Lille 26%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Lille 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.39 PPG, Lille 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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