Reims 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Reims against 0.60 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Reims are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Reims winning.
The historical record gives Reims a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 65% versus Le Havre 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 57% | Le Havre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.56 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.864 / defence 1.178 | Le Havre attack 0.857 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.310. Data: 51 Reims games / 51 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 41% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 30%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Le Havre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 41% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Reims 1.56 / Le Havre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.864 / def 1.178 | Le Havre attack 0.857 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Reims (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Le Havre xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Le Havre kick off?
Reims vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Le Havre?
Reims 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Reims vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Le Havre part of?
Reims vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 41% chance of winning, Le Havre a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Reims and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Le Havre?
Record (3 meetings): Reims 3W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Reims and Le Havre in?
Reims (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.86) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.86x) against Reims's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.48
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Reims xG
Total xG
2.88
1.32
Le Havre xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Reims and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Reims and 1.32 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Reims have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 18W 13D 20L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre's form line: 11W 11D 29L from 51 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Reims are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 3W 9D 13L from 25 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.92 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 13D 20L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 11W 11D 29L in their last 51 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Le Havre away?
Reims's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.32 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Reims 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Le Havre?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 56%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 48% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 28% of games; Le Havre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Reims's recent matches and 48% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 48% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Le Havre tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 18, as Reims and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.56 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Le Havre attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 41% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 30%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 57%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.