Reims 2-4 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune II plays host to Reims versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 14 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Reims, 0.80 for Clermont Foot — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reims, 0 for Clermont Foot and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 54% versus Clermont Foot 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 44% | Clermont Foot 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.53 xG and Clermont Foot 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.960 / defence 1.026 | Clermont Foot attack 0.854 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.334. Data: 39 Reims games / 39 Clermont Foot games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 28%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Clermont Foot 3.57. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Reims 60% | Clermont Foot 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Reims 1.53 / Clermont Foot 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.960 / def 1.026 | Clermont Foot attack 0.854 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Reims (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Clermont Foot xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Reims vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Reims 2 - 4 Clermont Foot.
Where is Reims vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Clermont Foot part of?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 45% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reims and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.96) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.85x) against Reims's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.67
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Reims xG
Total xG
2.70
1.17
Clermont Foot xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Reims and 1.17 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 11W 13D 15L from 39 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 21L across 39 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Reims against 0.92 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.97 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 11W 13D 15L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Clermont Foot away?
Reims's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.11 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Reims go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Reims
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 53%, Clermont Foot 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reims) and 42% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 32% of games; Clermont Foot in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Reims's recent matches and 32% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reims's recent games and 42% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Reims 2-4 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.53 xG and Clermont Foot 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reims 45% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 28%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 44%, Clermont Foot 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.18 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.