Reims 0-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 42%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Reims vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Auxerre at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Reims — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Reims have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 0.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Reims's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Reims's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Reims have won 1, Auxerre 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Reims 1–2 Auxerre — a Auxerre win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 62% versus Auxerre 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 55% | Auxerre 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reims surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Auxerre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.58 xG and Auxerre 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.741 / defence 1.105 | Auxerre attack 0.886 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.397. Reims's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.58. Auxerre's defence rating of 1.383 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reims's projected output up. Data: built from Reims's last 58 games and Auxerre's last 24.
Result probabilities: Reims 42% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 32%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.40 | Draw 3.86 | Auxerre 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 70% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 42% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Reims 1.58 / Auxerre 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.741 / def 1.105 | Auxerre attack 0.886 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Reims (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Auxerre xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Reims vs Auxerre kick off?
Reims vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Auxerre?
Reims 0 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Reims vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Auxerre part of?
Reims vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 42% chance of winning, Auxerre a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Reims and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Reims vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.74x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 58 games and Auxerre's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.86
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Reims xG
Total xG
2.95
1.37
Auxerre xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Reims and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Reims and 1.37 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 15D 25L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.67 PPG from 58 outings (27W 16D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Reims — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Reims's home form reads 9W 7D 12L across their last 28 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.72 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Reims (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Reims vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 27W 16D 15L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Auxerre away?
Reims's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.21 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Reims or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Auxerre in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Reims's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reims
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Auxerre?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reims and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Reims 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 57%, Auxerre 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Reims) and 57% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Reims's games and 64% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reims and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Reims's recent games and 57% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Reims's recent matches and 82% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Reims 0-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.58 xG and Auxerre 1.37 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Reims fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 42% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 32%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 55%, Auxerre 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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