Reims 1-2 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune II plays host to Reims versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season: 2W 3D 2L from 7 home games — 1.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Angers's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Angers have posted 1W 6D 1L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Reims against 1.10 for Angers. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 56% and Angers 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 38% | Angers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.99 xG and Angers 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.747 / defence 1.041 | Angers attack 0.920 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.265. Reims's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Reims games / 16 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 28% | Draw 32% | Angers 39%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Angers 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Reims 43% | Angers 88% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 28% | Draw 32% | Angers 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Reims 0.99 / Angers 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.747 / def 1.041 | Angers attack 0.920 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Angers (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Angers xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Angers kick off?
Reims vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Angers?
Reims 1 - 2 Angers.
Where is Reims vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Angers part of?
Reims vs Angers is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 28% chance of winning, Angers a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Angers in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Angers (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.75) and Angers's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.92x) against Reims's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
28%
3.53
32%
3.09
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Reims xG
Total xG
2.20
1.21
Angers xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.4 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Reims and 1.21 for Angers, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Reims have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 4W 7D 5L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers's form line: 5W 7D 4L from 16 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Reims against 1.38 for Angers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Angers have gone 0W 6D 1L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Angers's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.44 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Angers in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Angers have gone 5W 7D 4L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Angers away?
Reims's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.29 PPG; Angers away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Reims or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Angers in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reims
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Angers?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Reims 0-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Angers?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 43% for Reims, 100% for Angers — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Reims) and 43% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Reims's games and 100% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Reims's recent games and 43% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Angers tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Angers in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Reims 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.99 xG and Angers 1.21 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.75 / defence 1.04 against Angers attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 28% | Draw 32% | Angers 39%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 38%, Angers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Angers's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.19 PPG, Angers 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.