Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris Saint Germain vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Nice travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris Saint Germain have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Parc des Princes this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Paris Saint Germain 2.10 PPG, Nice 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Paris Saint Germain register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nice in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, Nice 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Nice trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 70% and Nice 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 64% | Nice 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.25 xG and Nice 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.118 / defence 0.912 | Nice attack 1.122 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.271. Data: 44 Paris Saint Germain games / 44 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 20% | Nice 21%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Nice 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 60% | Nice 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 20% | Nice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.25 / Nice 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.118 / def 0.912 | Nice attack 1.122 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Nice xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Paris Saint Germain 1 - 0 Nice.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance of winning, Nice a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Record (8 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 3W | Draws 2 | Nice 3W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.12) and Nice's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
59%
1.70
20%
5.05
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.55
1.30
Nice xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
10%
9.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
2%
44.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.30 for Nice, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 44 games, going 32W 9D 3L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.75 PPG from 44 outings (22W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 17W 3D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.55 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.86 scored and 1.27 conceded. Nice's attacking output running into Paris Saint Germain's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Nice in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 32W 9D 3L in their last 44 games (2.39 PPG), while Nice have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Nice away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.57 PPG; Nice away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Nice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Paris Saint Germain at 67%, Nice at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Paris Saint Germain and 71% for Nice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 81% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 71% of Nice's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Nice tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nice in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Nice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Nice 1-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.25 xG and Nice 1.30 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Nice attack 1.12 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 59% | Draw 20% | Nice 21%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 64%, Nice 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.