Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 0L across 6 games at Parc des Princes this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Paris Saint Germain are significantly better at Parc des Princes than their overall form suggests.
Nantes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.50 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Nantes in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 62% versus Nantes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 69% | Nantes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.89 xG and Nantes 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.257 / defence 0.995 | Nantes attack 0.818 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.198. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Paris Saint Germain games / 13 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 28% | Nantes 16%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Nantes 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 67% | Nantes 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 28% | Nantes 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.89 / Nantes 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.257 / def 0.995 | Nantes attack 0.818 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Nantes xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance of winning, Nantes a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nantes in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Nantes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.26x the league average against Nantes's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.82x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
56%
1.79
28%
3.57
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.87
0.97
Nantes xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
41.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.97 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 13 games, going 11W 1D 1L for 2.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 6W 0D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nantes in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 11W 1D 1L in their last 13 games (2.62 PPG), while Nantes have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Nantes away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 3.00 PPG; Nantes away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nantes in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 7, Nantes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Nantes?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Paris Saint Germain, 67% for Nantes — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Paris Saint Germain) and 33% (Nantes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nantes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 67% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 33% of Nantes's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Nantes tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nantes in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Nantes 3-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.89 xG and Nantes 0.97 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.26 / defence 0.99 against Nantes attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 28% | Nantes 16%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 69%, Nantes 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.