Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain host Auxerre at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Parc des Princes this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 2.20 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 54% versus Auxerre 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 65% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.66 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.345 / defence 0.861 | Auxerre attack 0.768 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.381. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Paris Saint Germain's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Paris Saint Germain games / 14 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 74% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 10%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Auxerre 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 70% | Auxerre 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 74% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 56% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.66 / Auxerre 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.345 / def 0.861 | Auxerre attack 0.768 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Auxerre xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Paris Saint Germain 5 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 74% chance of winning, Auxerre a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.34x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.23
10%
9.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.57
0.91
Auxerre xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
9.97
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
7%
14.25
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
1%
142.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.91 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 38W 10D 4L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 22W 17D 13L from 52 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.68 PPG from 25 outings (21W 4D 0L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 10W 8D 7L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.38 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 65%.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 38W 10D 4L in their last 52 games (2.38 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 22W 17D 13L in their last 52 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Auxerre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.68 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Auxerre in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 56%, Auxerre 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Paris Saint Germain and 56% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 68% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 56% of Auxerre's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Auxerre 5-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.66 xG and Auxerre 0.91 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.34 / defence 0.86 against Auxerre attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 74% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 10%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 65%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.60. Form held, and they took the win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.52 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.