Nice 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Toulouse meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Nice, 1.10 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nice, 0 for Toulouse and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Toulouse 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 44% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.47 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.963 / defence 0.903 | Toulouse attack 0.912 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.241. Data: 73 Nice games / 35 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 26%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 3.85. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Nice 50% | Toulouse 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Nice 1.47 / Toulouse 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.963 / def 0.903 | Toulouse attack 0.912 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Nice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Toulouse xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Toulouse kick off?
Nice vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Toulouse?
Nice 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Nice vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Toulouse part of?
Nice vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 47% chance of winning, Toulouse a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nice and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Nice and Toulouse in?
Nice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.96x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.91x) against Nice's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.62
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Nice xG
Total xG
2.49
1.02
Toulouse xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Nice and 1.02 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nice come into this having played 73 games, going 33W 19D 21L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.67 PPG from 73 outings (35W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Nice against 1.67 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nice's home form reads 16W 10D 10L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.47 points per game from 36 outings (15W 8D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.78 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 33W 19D 21L in their last 73 games (1.62 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 35W 17D 21L in their last 73 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Toulouse away?
Nice's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.61 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Nice or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Toulouse in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 5-1 on 17 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nice
4
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Nice have won 1, Toulouse have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Toulouse 5-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 50%, Toulouse 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nice) and 58% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 33%; Nice have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nice's recent matches and 53% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nice's recent games and 58% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Toulouse tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice and Toulouse finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.47 xG and Toulouse 1.02 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Toulouse attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 47% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 26%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 44%, Toulouse 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.62 PPG, Toulouse 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.