Nice 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Nantes travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 16:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice at Allianz Riviera this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nantes — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.10 PPG, Nantes 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nantes in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nice have won 2, Nantes 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 2–1 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nantes trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 43% versus Nantes 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 47% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.55 xG and Nantes 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.846 / defence 1.005 | Nantes attack 0.795 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.459. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Nice games / 49 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 46% | Draw 26% | Nantes 28%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Nantes 3.57. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Nice 60% | Nantes 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 46% | Draw 26% | Nantes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nice 1.55 / Nantes 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.846 / def 1.005 | Nantes attack 0.795 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Nice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Nantes xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Nantes kick off?
Nice vs Nantes kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Nantes?
Nice 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Nice vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Nantes part of?
Nice vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 46% chance of winning, Nantes a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nice and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
Record (2 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 0 | Nantes 0W.
What form are Nice and Nantes in?
Nice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Nantes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.85) and Nantes's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.78
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Nice xG
Total xG
2.72
1.17
Nantes xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Nice and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Nice and 1.17 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice's recent record stands at 23W 10D 16L from 49 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 18L across 49 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.61 PPG, Nantes on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nice have managed 11W 5D 8L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nantes's away record stands at 4W 7D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.39 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Nantes in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 23W 10D 16L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Nantes have gone 17W 14D 18L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Nantes away?
Nice's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.58 PPG; Nantes away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Nice or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nantes in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nice have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jan 2026, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nice
3
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Nantes?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 4, Nantes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Nantes 1-4 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Nantes?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 50%, Nantes 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nice) and 50% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 33% of games; Nantes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nice's games and 62% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nice's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Nantes tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nantes in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 12, as Nice and Nantes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.55 xG and Nantes 1.17 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Nantes attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 46% | Draw 26% | Nantes 28%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 47%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.61 PPG, Nantes 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.