Nantes 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantes at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantes and Saint Etienne meet at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nantes have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Nantes's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nantes 1W, Saint Etienne 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Nantes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantes 57% and Saint Etienne 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 43% | Saint Etienne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 2.25 xG and Saint Etienne 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.145 / defence 1.083 | Saint Etienne attack 0.794 / defence 1.624. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.280. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.624 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Nantes games / 37 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 63% | Draw 19% | Saint Etienne 17%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Saint Etienne 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Nantes (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Saint Etienne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 63% | Draw 19% | Saint Etienne 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Nantes 2.25 / Saint Etienne 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.145 / def 1.083 | Saint Etienne attack 0.794 / def 1.624 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Nantes (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Saint Etienne xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Nantes vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Saint Etienne?
Nantes 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Nantes vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Saint Etienne part of?
Nantes vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 63% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nantes and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Nantes and Saint Etienne in?
Nantes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.79x) against Nantes's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
63%
1.58
19%
5.19
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.35
1.10
Saint Etienne xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
10%
9.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
2%
54.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Nantes and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Nantes and 1.10 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 15W 9D 13L from 37 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 20L across 37 games — 0.84 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nantes by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 11W 3D 4L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.11 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 68%.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 games (1.46 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 7W 10D 20L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Saint Etienne away?
Nantes's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 2.00 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nantes
3
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Saint Etienne 1-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Saint Etienne?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 50%, Saint Etienne 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nantes) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 28% of games; Saint Etienne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nantes's recent matches and 56% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nantes's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 38, as Nantes and Saint Etienne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 2.25 xG and Saint Etienne 1.10 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.15 / defence 1.08 against Saint Etienne attack 0.79 / defence 1.62, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 63% | Draw 19% | Saint Etienne 17%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 43%, Saint Etienne 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.