Nantes 0-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lyon (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nantes face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantes host Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 20:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lyon — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lyon — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Lyon have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Nantes's 0 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Lyon winning.
It is worth noting that Lyon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Lyon trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 61% versus Lyon 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Lyon 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.12 xG and Lyon 2.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.771 / defence 1.507 | Lyon attack 1.275 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.243. Nantes's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — the away xG of 2.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Nantes games / 54 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 16% | Draw 18% | Lyon 65%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Lyon 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Lyon 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 16% | Draw 18% | Lyon 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG Nantes 1.12 / Lyon 2.39 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.771 / def 1.507 | Lyon attack 1.275 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Lyon (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
2.39
Lyon xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Lyon kick off?
Nantes vs Lyon kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Nantes 0 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Nantes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Lyon part of?
Nantes vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 16% chance of winning, Lyon a 65% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Nantes and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
Record (9 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 3 | Lyon 6W.
What form are Nantes and Lyon in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 2.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
16%
6.14
18%
5.48
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.51
2.39
Lyon xG
6.14
16%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
9%
10.90
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
1%
66.97
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Nantes and 2.39 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes come into this having played 54 games, going 11W 17D 26L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.78 PPG from 54 outings (29W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nantes's home form reads 6W 8D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.81 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantes have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lyon in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 17D 26L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while Lyon have gone 29W 9D 16L in their last 54 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.96 PPG; Lyon away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Nantes or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Lyon in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2025, when Lyon won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nantes
3
Draws
7
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, Lyon have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Nantes 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 52%, Lyon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nantes) and 59% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Nantes's games and 59% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nantes's recent games and 59% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lyon tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lyon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Nantes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Nantes 0-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.12 xG and Lyon 2.39 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.77 / defence 1.51 against Lyon attack 1.27 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 16% | Draw 18% | Lyon 65%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.