Montpellier 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Reims travel to Stade de la Mosson to take on Montpellier. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 November 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade de la Mosson this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Reims's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Montpellier register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Reims in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Montpellier, 0 for Reims and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Reims in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 52% versus Reims 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 54% | Reims 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.19 xG and Reims 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.884 / defence 1.139 | Reims attack 0.793 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.373. Data: 52 Montpellier games / 52 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 34% | Draw 29% | Reims 37%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Reims 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 60% | Reims 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 34% | Draw 29% | Reims 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Montpellier 1.19 / Reims 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.884 / def 1.139 | Reims attack 0.793 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Reims (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Reims xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Reims kick off?
Montpellier vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Reims?
Montpellier 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Montpellier vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Reims part of?
Montpellier vs Reims is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 34% chance of winning, Reims a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Montpellier and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Reims?
Record (2 meetings): Montpellier 0W | Draws 2 | Reims 0W.
What form are Montpellier and Reims in?
Montpellier (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Reims (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.88x the league average against Reims's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.42
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.43
1.24
Reims xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.24 for Reims, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Montpellier come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 8D 28L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.19 PPG from 52 outings (14W 20D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 1.08 PPG, Reims on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Montpellier's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (7W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Montpellier are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.12 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Reims in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 16W 8D 28L in their last 52 games (1.08 PPG), while Reims have gone 14W 20D 18L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Reims away?
Montpellier's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.35 PPG; Reims away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Montpellier's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Montpellier
5
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Reims?
From 10 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Reims have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Montpellier 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 54%, Reims 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Montpellier) and 38% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Montpellier have failed to score in 27% of games; Reims in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Montpellier's recent matches and 54% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Montpellier's recent games and 38% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Reims tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Reims in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 15, as Montpellier and Reims drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.19 xG and Reims 1.24 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Reims attack 0.79 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 34% | Draw 29% | Reims 37%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 54%, Reims 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.08 PPG, Reims 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.