Montpellier 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Montpellier at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Montpellier face Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Montpellier welcome Clermont Foot to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 in Ligue 1 (matchday 8). Kick-off is Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Montpellier have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Clermont Foot have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Montpellier 0.90 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Montpellier's games and 70% of Clermont Foot's (from Montpellier's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Montpellier, 1 for Clermont Foot and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Montpellier 2–1 Clermont Foot — a Montpellier win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 54% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 64% | Clermont Foot 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Montpellier surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Clermont Foot have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.31 xG and Clermont Foot 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.988 / defence 1.129 | Clermont Foot attack 0.963 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.076. Data: built from Montpellier's last 50 games and Clermont Foot's last 50.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 37% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 31%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 2.67 | Draw 3.12 | Clermont Foot 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Montpellier 60% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 8 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 37% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Montpellier 1.31 / Clermont Foot 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.988 / def 1.129 | Clermont Foot attack 0.963 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Clermont Foot xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Montpellier 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot part of?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 8) (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 37% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Montpellier and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Montpellier vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.99x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Montpellier's last 50 games and Clermont Foot's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
37%
2.67
32%
3.12
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.48
1.17
Clermont Foot xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.17 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 9D 23L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Clermont Foot's form line: 19W 11D 20L from 50 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 1.26 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 24 home games (7W 6D 11L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 9W 7D 8L from their last 24 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.06 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
Montpellier (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Montpellier
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Montpellier and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 18W 9D 23L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.12 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Montpellier's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Montpellier
4
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Clermont Foot?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Montpellier have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 62%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Montpellier) and 50% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Montpellier vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Montpellier and Clermont Foot matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Montpellier's games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Montpellier and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Montpellier's matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Montpellier and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Montpellier's recent matches and 71% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 8, as Montpellier and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.31 xG and Clermont Foot 1.17 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against Clermont Foot attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 37% | Draw 32% | Clermont Foot 31%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 64%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.26 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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