Monaco 2-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Rennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Monaco welcome Rennes to Stade Louis II. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 2L at Stade Louis II — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rennes — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rennes's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Monaco's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Monaco in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rennes in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 50% versus Rennes 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 50% | Rennes 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.42 xG and Rennes 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.247 / defence 1.022 | Rennes attack 1.115 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.303. Data: 18 Monaco games / 18 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 35% | Draw 27% | Rennes 38%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Rennes 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 56% | Rennes 38%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 35% | Draw 27% | Rennes 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Monaco 1.42 / Rennes 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.247 / def 1.022 | Rennes attack 1.115 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Rennes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Rennes xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Rennes kick off?
Monaco vs Rennes kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Monaco 2 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Monaco vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Rennes part of?
Monaco vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 35% chance of winning, Rennes a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Monaco and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Rennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monaco and Rennes in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Rennes (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.25x the league average against Rennes's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.76
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.91
1.49
Rennes xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Monaco and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Monaco and 1.49 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 7W 5D 6L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 9W 4D 5L from 18 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.44 PPG, Rennes on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
On the road, Rennes have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Monaco are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 1.83 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Rennes in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Rennes in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Rennes have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Rennes away?
Monaco's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.75 PPG; Rennes away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Monaco or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Rennes in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Monaco won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Monaco
1
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 7, Rennes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Monaco 4-0 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Rennes?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rennes see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Rennes 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Monaco) and 38% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Rennes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Rennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monaco's recent matches and 38% of Rennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Monaco's recent games and 38% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Rennes tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Rennes in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monaco defy the odds to beat Rennes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Rennes 2-1 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.42 xG and Rennes 1.49 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.25 / defence 1.02 against Rennes attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 35% | Draw 27% | Rennes 38%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Monaco win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 50%, Rennes 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rennes's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.44 PPG, Rennes 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.