Monaco 1-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Monaco at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Louis II to face Monaco in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Monaco (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stade Louis II this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis II. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Monaco are significantly better at Stade Louis II than their overall form suggests.
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Monaco. A 0.60 PPG lead over Reims (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Monaco lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Monaco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 48% versus Reims 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 48% | Reims 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.57 xG and Reims 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.179 / defence 0.865 | Reims attack 0.663 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.166. Data: 25 Monaco games / 25 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 59% | Draw 26% | Reims 16%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Reims 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 50% | Reims 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 59% | Draw 26% | Reims 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 39% | xG Monaco 1.57 / Reims 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.179 / def 0.865 | Reims attack 0.663 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Monaco (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Reims xG
39%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Reims kick off?
Monaco vs Reims kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Reims?
Monaco 1 - 2 Reims.
Where is Monaco vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Reims part of?
Monaco vs Reims is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 59% chance of winning, Reims a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Monaco and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 0W.
What form are Monaco and Reims in?
Monaco (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.18) and Reims's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.66x) against Monaco's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.90
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.24
0.67
Reims xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
3%
30.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Monaco and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Monaco and 0.67 for Reims, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Reims?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monaco's recent record stands at 10W 8D 7L from 25 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 9L across 25 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Monaco against 1.12 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 7W 4D 2L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 2W 6D 5L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.12 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Reims in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 10W 8D 7L in their last 25 games (1.52 PPG), while Reims have gone 6W 10D 9L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Reims away?
Monaco's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.92 PPG; Reims away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Monaco or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Reims in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 0-3 on 18 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Monaco
2
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Monaco have won 3, Reims have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Monaco 3-0 Reims.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 46%, Reims 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Monaco) and 31% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Reims in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Monaco's recent matches and 54% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Monaco's recent games and 31% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Reims tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Reims in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Monaco 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Monaco 1-2 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.57 xG and Reims 0.67 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reims outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.18 / defence 0.86 against Reims attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 59% | Draw 26% | Reims 16%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Reims win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 48%, Reims 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.52 PPG, Reims 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.