Monaco 4-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 65% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Auxerre travel to Stade Louis-II to take on Monaco in Ligue 1 (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Monaco — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Monaco have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Monaco are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monaco at 1.40 PPG versus Auxerre's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Monaco's games and 60% of Auxerre's (from Monaco's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Monaco: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Auxerre, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Monaco 3–0 Auxerre — a Monaco win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Monaco and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Monaco in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 58% versus Auxerre 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 62% | Auxerre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 2.43 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.174 / defence 1.081 | Auxerre attack 0.770 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.302. Auxerre's defence rating of 1.397 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monaco's projected output up. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Monaco's last 53 games and Auxerre's last 19.
Result probabilities: Monaco 65% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 14%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.53 | Draw 4.75 | Auxerre 7.37. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.43 / 1.08) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Monaco 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Monaco's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monaco 60% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 65% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Monaco 2.43 / Auxerre 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.174 / def 1.081 | Auxerre attack 0.770 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Monaco (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Auxerre xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monaco vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Monaco vs Auxerre kick off?
Monaco vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Monaco 4 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Monaco vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Auxerre part of?
Monaco vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 65% chance of winning, Auxerre a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Monaco and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Monaco vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monaco's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.43. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Monaco's last 53 games and Auxerre's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.75
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.51
1.08
Auxerre xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
9%
11.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
1%
83.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Monaco and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Monaco and 1.08 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 30W 11D 12L from 53 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 13L across 53 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.91 PPG, Auxerre on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 15W 5D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 9W 6D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.72 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Monaco (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monaco
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Monaco vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Monaco and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 30W 11D 12L in their last 53 games (1.91 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 26W 14D 13L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Auxerre away?
Monaco's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.92 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Monaco or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won Auxerre 0-3 Monaco.
Monaco's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Monaco
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Monaco vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Monaco have won 5, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Monaco and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2026: Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Auxerre?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Monaco) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monaco vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monaco and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monaco's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Monaco and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Monaco's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Monaco's recent matches and 81% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Auxerre 4-2 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 2.43 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 0.77 / defence 1.40, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 65% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 14%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.91 PPG, Auxerre 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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