Metz 0-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (76%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Metz face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Metz welcome Paris Saint Germain to Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Metz have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Metz's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris Saint Germain stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Paris Saint Germain's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Metz's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Paris Saint Germain have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Metz. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Metz 1–3 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Metz in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 49% versus Paris Saint Germain 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 45% | Paris Saint Germain 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.90 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.897 / defence 1.315 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.514 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Paris Saint Germain bring a tight defence (rating 0.718, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Metz's projected output down. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.514, which lifts their away xG to 2.77. Metz's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Paris Saint Germain's projected output up. Data: built from Metz's last 33 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 71.
Result probabilities: Metz 9% | Draw 14% | Paris Saint Germain 76%. Fair-value odds: Metz 10.67 | Draw 6.99 | Paris Saint Germain 1.31. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (76%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Metz's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Metz 60% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 9% | Draw 14% | Paris Saint Germain 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Metz 0.90 / Paris Saint Germain 2.77 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.897 / def 1.315 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.514 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Metz xG
Expected Goals
2.77
Paris Saint Germain xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Metz vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Metz vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Metz vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Paris Saint Germain?
Metz 0 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Metz vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Metz vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 9% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 76% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Metz and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Metz vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Metz's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 2.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Metz's last 33 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.8%. Close behind: 0-3 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
9%
10.67
14%
6.99
76%
1.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Metz xG
Total xG
3.67
2.77
Paris Saint Germain xG
10.67
9%
Home win
6.99
14%
Draw
1.31
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
6%
16.01
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
1%
170.83
31%
3.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Metz vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Metz and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Metz and 2.77 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Metz come into this having played 71 games, going 28W 17D 26L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.23 PPG from 71 outings (48W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Metz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Metz's home form reads 13W 10D 12L across their last 35 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.40 points per game from their last 35 away games (26W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Metz are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.37 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 62%.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Metz (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Metz
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
❓ Metz vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Metz and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 28W 17D 26L in their last 71 games (1.42 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 48W 14D 9L in their last 71 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.40 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Metz or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Metz.
Metz's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Metz
0
Draws
6
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Metz vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Metz have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 46%, Paris Saint Germain 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Metz) and 63% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 43%; Metz have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Metz vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Metz and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Metz's recent matches and 54% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Metz and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Metz's recent games and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Metz's recent matches and 71% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Metz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Metz 0-2 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.90 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.77 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Metz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.51 / defence 0.72, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 9% | Draw 14% | Paris Saint Germain 76%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 76%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 45%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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