Marseille 0-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Marseille vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Orange Vélodrome plays host to Marseille versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 20 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Marseille have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Marseille at Stade Orange Vélodrome this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Marseille. A 0.90 PPG lead over Clermont Foot (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Marseille 1W, Clermont Foot 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Marseille winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Marseille goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 50% versus Clermont Foot 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 38% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 1.81 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 1.126 / defence 1.177 | Clermont Foot attack 0.715 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.141. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Marseille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Marseille games / 24 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Marseille 57% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 20%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Marseille at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Marseille 60% | Clermont Foot 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 57% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Marseille 1.81 / Clermont Foot 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 1.126 / def 1.177 | Clermont Foot attack 0.715 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Marseille (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Marseille vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Marseille vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stade Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Clermont Foot?
Marseille 0 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Marseille vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Clermont Foot part of?
Marseille vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 57% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Marseille and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Marseille vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Marseille 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Marseille and Clermont Foot in?
Marseille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Marseille's attack at 1.13x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.71x) against Marseille's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.31
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Marseille xG
Total xG
2.77
0.96
Clermont Foot xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
3%
31.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Marseille and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Marseille and 0.96 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Marseille have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 13W 7D 4L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 6W 6D 12L from 24 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Marseille are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Marseille have posted 1.67 PPG from 12 outings (5W 5D 2L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 3W 2D 7L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Marseille are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Marseille and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 13W 7D 4L in their last 24 games (1.92 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Clermont Foot away?
Marseille's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 1.67 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Marseille or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Marseille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won 1-5 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Marseille have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Marseille
0
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Marseille have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-5 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Clermont Foot?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Marseille see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 67%, Clermont Foot 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Marseille) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Marseille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Marseille play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Marseille's recent matches and 33% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Marseille vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Marseille's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Clermont Foot cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Marseille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Marseille 0-2 at Stade Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 1.81 xG and Clermont Foot 0.96 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Marseille fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against Clermont Foot attack 0.71 / defence 1.36, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 57% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 20%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 38%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.