Lyon 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lyon face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 meet at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lyon's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Lyon have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lyon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Jan 2025, ended Lyon 1–2 Stade Brestois 29 — a Stade Brestois 29 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lyon — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Stade Brestois 29 — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 56% versus Stade Brestois 29 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 60% | Stade Brestois 29 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.66 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.153 / defence 0.884 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.850 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.373. Data: built from Lyon's last 57 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 57.
Result probabilities: Lyon 51% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 22%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.98 | Draw 3.62 | Stade Brestois 29 4.58. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lyon's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lyon 50% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 51% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lyon 1.66 / Stade Brestois 29 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.153 / def 0.884 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.850 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Lyon (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Stade Brestois 29 xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lyon 2 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 51% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.15) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.85x) against Lyon's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Lyon's last 57 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.62
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.70
1.03
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
4%
24.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Lyon and 1.03 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lyon come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 11D 20L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.65 PPG from 57 outings (27W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Lyon against 1.65 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lyon's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 28 away games (12W 4D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lyon are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.54 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lyon (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lyon
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 26W 11D 20L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 27W 13D 17L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lyon's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.61 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Lyon or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lyon
2
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lyon have won 4, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lyon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 54%, Stade Brestois 29 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Lyon) and 50% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lyon vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lyon's recent matches and 43% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Lyon's recent games and 50% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Lyon's recent matches and 75% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Stade Brestois 29 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.66 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.03 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.15 / defence 0.88 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 51% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 22%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 60%, Stade Brestois 29 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.56 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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