Lille 2-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Toulouse at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lille — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lille 1.40 PPG, Toulouse 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 67% versus Toulouse 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 58% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.96 xG and Toulouse 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.084 / defence 1.335 | Toulouse attack 0.851 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.461. Data: 45 Lille games / 7 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 45% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 33%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Toulouse 3.03. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 60% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 45% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Lille 1.96 / Toulouse 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.084 / def 1.335 | Toulouse attack 0.851 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Lille (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Toulouse xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Toulouse kick off?
Lille vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Lille 2 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Lille vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Toulouse part of?
Lille vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 45% chance of winning, Toulouse a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Lille and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Toulouse in?
Lille (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.08) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.40
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Lille xG
Total xG
3.62
1.66
Toulouse xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
14%
7.07
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Lille and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Lille and 1.66 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 14D 14L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.93 PPG from 45 outings (25W 12D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Lille — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 8W 8D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.64 points per game from 22 outings (10W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.00 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Toulouse in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 17W 14D 14L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 25W 12D 8L in their last 45 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.45 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Lille or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Toulouse in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lille
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Lille have won 6, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Toulouse 0-4 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Toulouse?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 64%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lille) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Toulouse in 36%; Toulouse in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lille's games and 50% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lille's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Toulouse tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Toulouse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 2-1 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.96 xG and Toulouse 1.66 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.08 / defence 1.33 against Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 45% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 33%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 58%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Lille winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.