Lille 2-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lille at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Toulouse at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lille — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lille register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Toulouse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lille, 1 for Toulouse and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 50% versus Toulouse 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.64 xG and Toulouse 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.163 / defence 1.151 | Toulouse attack 0.896 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.321. Data: 40 Lille games / 40 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 42% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 29%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Toulouse 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 70% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 42% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Lille 1.64 / Toulouse 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.163 / def 1.151 | Toulouse attack 0.896 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Lille (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Toulouse xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Toulouse kick off?
Lille vs Toulouse kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Lille 2 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Lille vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Toulouse part of?
Lille vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 42% chance of winning, Toulouse a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lille and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
Record (4 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Lille and Toulouse in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.16) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.45
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lille xG
Total xG
3.00
1.36
Toulouse xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lille and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lille and 1.36 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 12D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (12W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse in 60%.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Toulouse away?
Lille's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.00 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Lille or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Toulouse in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Toulouse runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lille
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Lille have won 6, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Toulouse 0-4 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Toulouse?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 53%, Toulouse 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lille) and 53% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Toulouse in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lille's recent matches and 53% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lille's matches and 53% of Toulouse's.
Do Lille and Toulouse tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Toulouse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 2-1 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.64 xG and Toulouse 1.36 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.16 / defence 1.15 against Toulouse attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 42% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 29%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Toulouse 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.