Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 36% versus Stade Brestois 29 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 36% | Stade Brestois 29 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.67 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.999 / defence 1.017 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.939 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.325. Data: 37 Lille games / 36 Stade Brestois 29 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lille 45% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 28%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Stade Brestois 29 3.57. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Lille 50% | Stade Brestois 29 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 45% | Draw 27% | Stade Brestois 29 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Lille 1.67 / Stade Brestois 29 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.999 / def 1.017 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.939 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Lille (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Stade Brestois 29 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 45% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (10 meetings): Lille 3W | Draws 5 | Stade Brestois 29 2W.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.00x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.67
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Lille xG
Total xG
2.93
1.27
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
19.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lille and 1.27 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 20W 7D 9L from 36 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 15L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 8W 6D 4L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.31 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 20W 7D 9L in their last 36 games (1.86 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lille's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.67 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Lille or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lille's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lille
5
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 50%, Stade Brestois 29 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lille) and 56% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lille's recent matches and 50% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lille's recent games and 56% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.